SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FORESTS ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IMITATION MODELLING

نویسندگان

چکیده

Sustainable forest management implies the necessity to maintain and uphold balance between growing demand for ecosystem services (ES) capabilities present. This issue motivates development of ways include various ES into ecosystems planning system, taking account social, political, environmental economic contexts. One effective tools is imitation modeling, which allows assessing decision-making risks consequences. raises scientific problem substantiating possible alternative scenarios future area subsequent simulation. article aimed at analyzing approaches creating a local level modelling testing new method based on existing solving this problem. In its first part, modern research analysis in field presented; second one proposes scenarios’ compiling method, created within framework POLYFORES project, also presents results three model sites located Nizhny Novgorod region, Republic Karelia Moscow region. For plots four have been created, obtaining benefits: 1 — from timber harvesting, 2 recreational food resources, 3 regulating ES, 4 both under conditions intensified growing, regulatory ES. Karelia, scenario describes situation meeting wood, while preserving biodiversity third take increased with low high priorities conservation. only two were relevant, increasing need citizens preservation priority decisions making either remaining or increasing. each scenario, forestry activities corresponding objectives developed. The proposed can be used obtain information about impact supply.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: ??????? ?????? ?????

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2658-607X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31509/2658-607x-202252-104